A Warning Signal?

The radio industry in Canada has a rich and evocative past as well as a reasonably profitable present. As we stumble forward looking for the future, perhaps we should keep our collective ear to the ground. Is it possible that we are hearing a warning signal?

For those of us that love radio, it is given that the medium will always be an important part of our lives. And I’m not talking about income. We revel in the memories of hearing those AM top 40 hits that captured our imagination, got our adrenaline running and our hormones racing. Or maybe it’s the progressive or alternative rock on FM that helped us find our identities and feel alive. “What a rush….what a feeling”. Or new music….”the spirit of radio”. The news and talk shows that kept us company, kept us informed, made us angry, made us want to call in, made us think. The memories are entrenched and the value of the medium is taken for granted.

This is an era of consolidation and fiscal responsibility. Overall, both profit margins and station values are quite good. Not up to dot com boom standards but far better than dot com bust. Consumers in key demos are still treated to some outstanding programming. While down a bit in the Spring 2002 BBM, average hours tuned per capita for Adults 18+ is still about 21.2 hours/week. With a figure like that, it is hard to argue that radio is not an important part of peoples’ lives. The female 25-54 demo in particular is superserved with all manner of adult contemporary stations. No problem there. The question is, what about the next generation?

The medium is doing a fairly good job of holding onto what it had. AM stations have retained a great deal of loyalty from Adults 55+. In particular, the reach for AM with those 65+ (Men 64.2%/Women 63.3%)* is better than FM (Men 54.4%// Women 52.4%). We have every reason to believe that FM stations will hold the 35+ group as they age.

Now…… take a look at teens (12-17). Weekly average hours tuned per capita over the last three spring books have fallen from 11.7 in 2000 to 11.0 in 2001 to 10.1 in 2002.

Could this be an anomaly? How could our children be forsaking the magic medium?

With less than 1% of all radio buys going against teen targets, this is not an immediate problem. But if we do not address this situation, it will become a BIG problem. The internet has been an innovative source of entertainment. MP3’s, file sharing (let’s leave the politics of this issue to another article), streaming video clips, network games and much more. Television has been delivering some excellent niche oriented content for teens and young adults. MuchMusic, Vibe, Much Loud, etc. Quality, in-depth, around the clock programming catering to all the whims, fashions and fantasies of youth. Then you have the new video game consoles….Xbox, Playstation, Gamecube. Excellent quality with enough titles to fill all of a teen’s free time. The video game industry continues to post astounding revenue figures. The movie industry continues to deliver blockbuster films for the 12-24 demo with opening weekend grosses sufficient to turn any radio sales manager green with envy.

This isn’t to say that there aren’t some first rate Contemporary Hit Radio Stations in Canada. Given the limited revenue sources for young demos, it would be unreasonable to expect many more such stations. So how do we capture the imagination of today’s teens/young adults given the immense amount of competition for their attention? Interactive station web sites with creative promotional extensions are a good start. Here radio stations have a chance to tie together a number of their audience’s interests (movie reviews and trailers, game reviews and links, streaming audio, music clips and CD reviews, contests, etc.). DAB (Digital Audio Broadcasting) has the potential to make a significant contribution. With CD quality sound and a display delivering all sorts of ongoing info (and ultimately pictures), you have the sort of high quality multimedia device which teens demand. Add to that the fact that some of the new receivers offer such features as the ability to record on-air programming and store it in MP3 form.

Now we’re talking.

These initiatives are a good start, but one thing remains certain. Radio can’t rest on its laurels. Heritage means little or nothing to those who haven’t experienced it. They won’t have those cherished memories. If we don’t grab their attention now, those average hours tuned for teens will keep dropping. Then, as they age, it will be very difficult to win their loyalty back.


*Source BBM Radio Data Book 2001-2002
Published in Broadcaster Magazine