The Future

As I sit on the cusp of a new millennium, I take a look around and wonder ... is this hello or goodbye? They say your past catches up with you. Anyone who has looked at demographic projections lately knows that senior citizens comprise a dramatically increasing per centage of our population. And what is mainstream? The majority are minorities. Nothing seems as clear as it once did. It's a time of increasing media fragmentation and confusion, not to mention road rage. Let's take a shot at a few predictions.

As the Spring 1999 BBM RTS study points out, 3,539,866 or 85.5 per cent of people aged 12+ in Toronto actively search the web for information. People are pounding on the gates and they are willing to pay the price of admission. Computers are perched hungrily waiting to consume traditional media.... or at least merge with them. We're not talking AM stereo or minidiscs here. This is going to happen. The only thing holding us back is limited bandwith, slow download times, etc. That limitation will be overcome shortly and the floodgates will open. Then what?

First of all, the idea of digital radio has already become antiquated. The cognoscenti have been sitting in boardrooms discussing this topic for so long that they might as well stay in the boardrooms and formulate a response as to why digital never caught on. It can't compare to all that the Web has to offer in broadcast options. Streaming audio and video afford the consumer an outstanding opportunity to make media choices from anywhere in the world at anytime he or she pleases. No borders, no restrictions. And don't talk to me about problems with mobility. Wireless service providers have already solved that one. A dashboard PC is just around the corner.

The media are more powerful than ever. What will the consumer do in the face of increasing fragmentation? If the medium is truly the message, then surely it can be a bit schizophrenic. With some consumers, patience diminishes and logic twists.

So, does all of this mean that radio is doomed? Not on your life. As the Fall '99 BBM points out, radio has a 93.3 per cent weekly reach of A12+ across Canada with the average person tuning in for approximately 21 hours per week. I had the pleasure of speaking with Ronnie Hawkins and his manager recently and I still believe that Rock and Roll will never die. Cable companies are tirelessly advertising 30 channels of interruption free digital music. It hasn't made a dent.

Average weekly time spent on the Web does not yet come close to time spent with television or radio. Rather than a threat, the Web is simply a spectacular new opportunity, both in terms of audience and revenue for radio. Radio will continue to broadcast over the airwaves as well as throughout the world over the Web.

More and more, fans will come to the Web site of their favourite station for music, lifestyle, talk and information. This is a tremendous opportunity to merchandise advertisers in new ways. Controlling the portal is like controlling the consumer's window on the world.

Does the universality of the Web pose a risk for local stations? To a degree, it is relevant. Still, that can be seen as an opportunity to expand your base beyond borders. Moreover, radio consumers will always hunger for local content, i.e. traffic, weather, news, club information, etc. In fact, consumer attachment to a given local station is a trait peculiar to the radio medium far more than to television. With television, the majority of viewership is driven by programming and most of that programming comes from the U.S. That having been said, television stations are currently doing an outstanding job of garnering allegiance by promoting related web sites.

Lastly, does media fragmentation mean reduced listener/viewer loyalty? Not necessarily. For example, the average person exploring the Web doesn't hit more than a total of 75 sites in all of their travels. I'm not sure if humans are loyal or lazy, but the fact remains that they stick with what they know, like and trust. Radio listeners generally confine themselves to two to three stations. Dial wanderlust is restricted to the very few. Superserve your core P1's and they will stick by you.

Fragmentation does mean marketing on the basis of niche targets. The death knell for reactive selling based on broad demos alone will be sounding shortly.

Use the qualitative/lifestyle information we have at hand to better understand and market your valuable audience.

As I sit on the cusp of a new millennium, I take a look around and see the optimism in my young children's eyes. I have decided to embrace the future.