Updating The Future

Sometimes predictions are best left to supermarket tabloid astrologers. Still, I thought I would take a look at some recent developments and update my gaze into the future of radio. I'm not sure, but this may have been brought on by the purchase of my first pair of bifocals.

It was not so long ago that web streaming was a hot topic. If you believed various venture capitalists, most everything in our lives would soon be preceded by www. Dot com share prices were rising like hot air balloons. Of course, we now know about that bubble bursting. Still, the web remains an invaluable promotional tool. Many stations are exploiting the web in a very efficient fashion for contesting, listener feedback, as well as cross-promoting advertisers and upcoming features. The fidelity of audio streaming over the web is improving with increased bandwidth. The web affords us a good way of checking in with out of market stations. But the fact remains that consumers have, at no time, shown an inclination to tie themselves to computers for their 20+ hours per week of listening time. Computer tuning is a novelty whereas conventional radio is an essential part of peoples' day to day lives. Wireless web radio has not become a meaningful reality and presents a tremendous number of obstacles. Lastly, web radio audience figures are so anemic that total national tuning to the top U.S. station doesn't compare to the local AM/FM numbers delivered by the smaller stations in Toronto.

All of this is not to say that computers won't play a pivotal role in future developments. Just look at some of the new digital (DAB) radios and you'll see how much programming and software have come into play when delivering a host of new data display features. In some ways, these new radios are much like mini-computers. Some of the new units dock with your home computer for the uploading and downloading of information. In the future, interactivity with the consumer will surely play an increasingly significant role.

Satellite continues to get a good deal of space. A reported $100 million promotion budget will do that for you. At the recent Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas, XM and Sirius representatives were out in significant numbers working to whip up enthusiasm.

XM now claims a subscriber base of 30,000 across the U.S. for its 71-channel satellite service. The monthly subscription fee remains a significant obstacle to the average listener. Even more significant is the fact that the NAB has stepped up lobbying with the FCC to make sure that satellite services will be granted no local originating programming or advertising. Local traffic, weather, and news are vital components of what the average listener seeks from radio. Take these away and satellite has a Sirius problem. The talk we hear in Canada is strictly spillover from the U.S. Here, satellite will be grey market only since the CRTC has no plans to grant licenses in Canada.

Looking at the last couple of decades, AM programming has rarely been as innovative as what we have heard recently. In order to deal with declining audiences and revenues, AM programmers have begun to take chances, generating new niche formats. The big winner is the consumer who is suddenly greeted with a wealth of new choices. These sharply defined formats will ultimately evolve into the digital domain, undoubtedly making use of all of the new features (e.g. data display) and fidelity that DAB has to offer.

Multiple ownership has changed the face of radio. Hold an owners meeting today and there will be very few people around the table. The logical next step is increased consolidation of all media. Rogers, CHUM, Global and others have moved in that direction. The lines are becoming increasingly blurred. Cable TV and audio services, cable TV networks, radio groups, internet service providers, satellite services, daily newspapers, online publications, etc. This is a multimedia world. The days of one media being pitted against another are quickly coming to an end. Ownership threads will ultimately tie everything together.

We are hurtling toward the future whether we like it or not. Despite the fact that I am certain it will afford us crystal digital clarity, many other things remain unclear. How will so many disparate elements come together to present a cohesive multimedia package to the consumer? Clearly there is a consumer hunger for a home media centre that will tie together the benefits of computers/web, CD's, print, radio, and television. As a first step, look at the number of home theatre systems that are being sold. Many are equipped with DVD players (for movies and CD's), surround sound television and radio receivers.

Something big is just over the horizon, but I can't quite make it out. Perhaps I should update my bifocal prescription.